Texas Hold'em And The Probabilities

Image via WikipediaWell, learning the basics of the game Texas Hold'em is pretty easy. The tough part is getting to master it. If you want to play the game well, you need to mix the ingredients of cunning, strategy and math and come with a winner. What you will also need to do is to keep a keen eye on the many probabilities that are likely to crop up during play. From there, you will have to figure out how to deal with these probabilities should you come up against them.

What does probability mean exactly when it is used with reference to Texas Hold'em? Well it's a term that is used very much in all games of poker including Texas Hold'em. It deals with how the players involved play their odds. The elements of probability include the various odds that could happen like getting an overcard, getting a hand off the flop, or finishing a straight or flush. All these odds are the determining factors when it comes to deciding who will win the game and who will walk home with the winnings. So you need to understand quite a lot about probability so it would help you to bet, call or fold.

Let's look at the terms used when it comes to Texas Hold'em probabilities. One of the terms that you will hear quite often in the game is ‘out'. This refers to the cards which could help you to get a hand. Say you have four spades with you, you know there are nine cards out so you need some of those ‘outs' to help you make a flush or a winning hand.

Yet another term that is used often is the one ‘pot odds'. These are the odds of getting a hand which is based on the current size of the pot as well as the call that you are going to make next. So if the pot's current size is $150 and you have a $10 bet coming, you can calculate that a winning hand could make it very profitable for you.

You also have ‘bet odds' where you have to look at the odds in relation to the bets the players make and how many call against a raise. You can say you have good bet odds if you have hand odds that are 1 to 5 and you are pretty certain that the ones you are playing against will call.

Then comes the term ‘implies odds' where you have the odds depending on whether you can predict the results of the betting round or not. Now this comes after you've had quite a bit of experience.

What is the main idea in Texas Hold'em's probabilities? It all boils down basically to division. Your denominator is the cards that you haven't seen yet and the cards or outs you have with you is your numerator. You need to divide your outs by 50 before the flop but after that it tends to drop to 47 and following the turn, you'll find it goes to 46.

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Why Stack Sizes Should Affect Your Play

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Time and time again, I’ve seen too many players misplay their cards in situations that call for it. And they pay for it; they lose their chip strength or in the worst case, get kicked out of the tournament. Chip management is the single most important skill one must learn in poker. Bluffing pales in comparison to this important skill, and now, I’ll teach you how to manage it well.

Conservative at the Start

Early in the tournament, when the blinds are low and with a good number of weak poker players around, it is important that you stay tight rather than jeopardizing your tournament dream. The antes are low, so there is no rush to be the chip leader. Relax and take it slow, only playing the best-looking hands. Don’t be a rock though, because no one will call your bets when you finally have a hand. In a nutshell, mix up your play but be conservative around 80% of the time.

Faster at the Middle

In the middle of the tournament, where a third or half of the competition is gone, and the tables are becoming smaller, with only five to seven people around, it’s time to speed up your play. From here, you should start putting up continuation bets and eat up small pots. This is important because the blinds are now chasing you and will substantially take a part of your stack if you become the big or small blind. Your poker instincts become more important this time around, because you will have to read your opponents plays if they are retaining their conservative nature or beginning to show some courage.

A Freak at the End

Nothing’s more important in the end-game than your feel for the table and your aggressive technique. You should learn how to play cards like 9-4 and take it to the top. Top players like Doyle Brunson have won the World Series of Poker with cards like 10-2. And in fact, he has done it with the same card twice.

Since this has confused many, I’ll give you an example. If you are dealt 10-4 and at the small blind, just limp in and see if he/she calls. If your opponent puts up a reasonable raise, just call it because you have a high card in 10 and it is unlikely that he/she has an AJ given that there are only two players. Also, there are lesser combinations for the card deck to work with. If the flop shows 2-4-9, bet around half of the pot and it’s likely that your opponent will fold it. That’s the nature of heads-up play. A low pair is equivalent to a high pair in a full table and in my example, getting nines is a premium holding card. Keep that basic rules in mind and you’ll have an idea how play in a short table and more importantly, heads-up.

Conclusion

From what you may have noticed, the style you should follow early in the tournament is a conservative one and as the game marches on, you should adopt a more aggressive approach. That’s why one should be familiar to both styles as it will aid you in tournament play where millions are at stake. Poker’s reach has extended through farther regions of the globe and is gaining popularity in places like The Philippine Islands and in New Zealand. So to speak, a No Limit Hold ‘Em game may be ongoing a few blocks away. If you keep these rules in mind and you may win a tourney in those local casinos one day.

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Five Years!

Its crazy to think that I launched this blog five years ago last month. I really haven't done too much posting to it over the years but the one thing it has led me into is creating other blog sites... Mostly with Wordpress (sorry Google).

I assure you that I take care of these sites much better than I do this one. It has actually developed into a very big part of my online presence. I do not think that i would be anywhere near where I am today if it hadn't been from creating this one blog just over five years ago.

I actually now have a blog site that is devoted to blogging with Wordpress that I update quite frequently. Its a pretty active site with numerous devoted readers and I would appreciate having you as one of my readers if you have any interest in being a blogger, yourself.

So as I embark on my sixth year blogging, I pledge to try and update this site more often... Which probably means that I need to get out to the casinos more often and play some cards.

See You at the tables...

Raking it in at Video Poker

Fact, of all the hands dealt only 21% are winning hands. The rest, which is 79%, are losers. The difference between a winner and a loser is what he does with 79% of the hands dealt so that it becomes a winner. To increase the chance of making money at video poker is to understand, embrace and promise loyalty to these video poker tips.

Find a machine that pays 9 for a full house win and six for a flush win.

If you want to play on a progressive machine that pays 8 for a full house win and 5 for a flush win, be sure that the nickel machine pays a jackpot of $250 or better, the quarter machine pays $2,500 or better or $10,000 on a dollar video poker machine. To collect on the royal flush bonus for a progressive machine, be sure to bet the maximum number of coins

Play on the machine with the lowest denomination if you are a new player. Wait until you get better before playing on the higher denomination video poker machines.

Use slot card to get credit for playing, if the casino offers one. First ask the point equivalent for each dollar played. Then learn what those earned points are worth.

Take time to read every hand you get. Remember you’re not playing against another person, it will not intimidate you for playing too slowly.

Players don't recognize that the jack is the most important card in the deck, not the Ace. A Jack gives you a lot more lucrative hands than an ace.

The variety of video poker you can play is almost endless, but all have their own pay tables that need specific strategies. The best way to start learning is to limit your choices to two.

Improve your game by playing on a computer or a portable video poker game. If you train this way, you get to test your skills with zero risk.

Here are playing tips:

1. Don’t ever hold a kicker with your pair. This reduces your payoff by 5%


2. Don’t draw four cards, if you can get a royal flush drawing three.


3. Always stay on a winning five-card hand except when drawing a royal flush with one card.


4. Never break a flush to draw a straight flush even with one draw.


5. Always break your flush to draw a royal flush.


6. Don’t break your straight to draw for a straight flush.


7. Don’t draw five, if you’re holding Jacks or better.


8. Never leave a ten on a four card draw.

Texas Hold'em Poker Tips

When people speak of poker, there is one name that cuts above the rest of the poker classification—the Texas Hold ‘em poker. This type of poker is considered to be the most popular type being played in the casinos today, whether online or in real casinos.

Generally, Texas Hold ‘Em Poker starts with a batch of two players situated at the left of the “dealer button.” This dealer buttons refers to the round disc being passed on clockwise on each player. It signifies who will be dealer in the event that the deal was move forward from one player to another.

The betting starts on the first part of the game where the money is placed into the pot before dealing the cards. Normally, the first blind is the one that places half of the required minimum stake. The first blind refers to the player situated at the left of the dealer. The second blind, on the other hand, is the one responsible in placing the full minimum required bet.

Since the very object of the game is to win whatever is in the pot, it is best to know some rules or strategies so as to get an edge over the other players. Here’s how:

1. The table.

When a player is playing Texas hold ‘em poker, the best thing that he or she should consider is selecting the table. This is because players, regardless of their skills in playing the game, will be constrained to give their best shots if the table is too assertive, too rigid or too loose, or if it consists of players that are more skillful.

The bottom line: Even if the essence of winning the game is directly affected by the skills of the player, it is still best to play on a table that has few raisers but many callers.

The logic behind this concept is based on the fact that the more raisers there are in a table, the lesser the chances of winning the game.

2. When a player is in the early position, it is best to raise with K-K, A-K, and A-As, then, with A-Qs, Q-Q, J-J, A-K, T-T, have a call and then fold everything else.

3. For players who already have a remarkable hand starters, especially when he or she has a high pair, say JJ or even higher, it is best not to hesitate raising it before the flop.

Indeed, playing Texas hold ‘em poker requires skills also. It is not all based on gambling. This just goes to show that games like this requires both luck and skill to win the pot.

HOW TO WIN AT POKER...Is there a sure way?

As poker is very popular today and a favorite game to play among Americans, one may ask, if there really is a sure way to win at poker.

The answer is simple. Study and check out these guidelines, try them at poker time and see for yourself.

Before starting to play the game, keep in mind these simple suggestions:

*Inspect the site. Make sure that it is authentic.

*Read the terms and conditions of the site. Check the maximum payouts and the minimum bets.

*Allocate a budget for the day. That budget will determine how much you are willing to lose or to win in the game. Stick to the limit.

*Do not gamble if you can not afford to lose.

*Practice playing the game. Familiarize yourself with the game first before you play for real money.

At the table, here are some warnings that you should always remember:

*If you do make a big win, do not be greedy, stop. Making a big win and gambling it all over again is a big sign of greediness.

*In poker, overall winnings are what count most. If you are losing, or have already lost your allotted money for the day, don’t try to win your losses back. You won't. Stop. Tomorrow is another day.

*Drinking alcohol is a big no no at poker time. It can serious affect your judgment. So stay away from it while on the game.

*Never take side bets. Usually these are just gimmicks, so that more money will go to the casino.

*Never gamble your hard earned money unless you are very much ready to lose it.

While in the game, here are some important ideas to think about:

*Gaze at your opponent's eye. Survey all their moves. Observe them, to better know them. This way, you will fear them less. This way, you will know when they are bluffing or not.

*Play in silence. Have that conversation with your self as well as think deep to your opponents actions. Concentrate.

*Base your decisions on what the reality is. See all movements as they are. Do not fear, instead, be calm and assess their moves accordingly.

*Don't take it personally. At the poker table, it is always unavoidable that your opponent can irritate you. Never give in to such responses. Stay within the good game. Be cool and objective. This is a bluffing game. But do keep in mind that just because your opponent has bluffed earlier, it does not mean that he does all the time. Think tight. Review each move.

*Think about what your opponents have. Create a situation. So when deciding, you'll have a better chance to be right.

*Know when to stop. Is the hand that you are raising now the hand you folded a while ago? This is a sign that you should go home.

*Play to enjoy. Do not play if you are sad, bored or tired. If you can't play having enjoyment as your goal, then don't play at all!

My Bad-Beat Story for This Year...

Let me preface this post with: I am not a very good loser! Especially when its to an inferior player...

I ventured out to the Hard Rock Casino - Tulsa to participate in one of the nightly $120 buy-in NL hold'em tournaments. I had a great start with six limpers to me in the big blind with 10 - 4 off suit. The flop came 10 - 4 - 4... The small blind checked and I made a small bet. Five folds and a call by the small blind. Turn was a 7 and again the SB checked to me and I laid out a bet for roughly half of the pot and he called. The river was a 2 and he checked and I again bet half of the pot and he folded... I was off and running.

Our table was the first to be broken and I moved to a new table after about 45 minutes of play and around 9K in chips (starting stack was 6K). I immediately went card dead for the next half hour. I finally woke up with A-K diamonds under the gun and made a raise and everyone folded back to me. I guess I had a pretty tight image at the table.

Finally the cards started coming around... or maybe I just got a bit more aggressive, and took down a few more pots, most without a showdown.

I went into the first break in the top 10 overall in chips and easily had the lead at our table.

I've always told my wife thats she's the biggest cooler in the world. I can be on the biggest roll evr and she calls me or stops by to talk and everything goes south from there. So why in the name of all that is good did I call her during the break???

After the break, I was once again pretty card dead, but I did manage to take a couple of short stacks out and win a couple of other rounds of blinds just by betting and watching everyone fold. The guy to my left, on the other hand, went on a big heater.

He had been down to around 3K in chips and ended up with it all in and sucked out on the river to double up through another player. When its your time, I guess its your time... And it was definitely this dude's time as he continued to catch cards and come from behind to win pots. He soon had taken the chip lead at our table.

Then things seemed to change as he lost a couple of pots, but still had a small chip lead over me. I limped into a pot with A - 8 spades as did he, the small blind and the big blind checked his option. The flop came down A clubs, 8 diamonds, 10 diamonds. Both blinds checked and I bet 3K into a pot of about 4K and he raises to 9K!

I had been at the table with him for a few hours so I knew he was pretty reckless at times. I thought about it and figured him to have A - small of diamonds. Both blinds folded and I called, leaving me around 12K in chips.

The turn was a Q spades and I laid out a bet of 3K and he again raised, this time to only 6K... If I call, then I would only have around 6K left for the river and I pushed it all in. He stopped and thought about it for a while... counted his chips... he had me covered by 800 chips. If he calls and loses, he's done... He calls!!!

I throw out my A - 8 for two pair and he turns over A - 2 diamonds... The only thing that will win it for him is a diamond... Then comes the river and its a 6 diamonds and my night is over.

I was right in the way I played it and would have loved it if we would have been in a cash game, because chasing a draw is sure way to lose over the long haul.

I stood up from the table and he reached to shake my hand... I reached out and shook it and as I walked away couldn't help myself but to do my best Helmuth impression: "How many times can one person suck out?" I said.

He was out of the tournament less than thirty minutes later after having climbed to 4th overall in chips after taking my stack.

Sorry for the bad-beat story... It won't happen again... hopefully.